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 What odds are


Odds are numbers, which are used to calculate the winning ratio at a given stake. In general the rule is the higher odds the lower probability of winning.
 Odds standards


European Odds (decimals)
Odds show how many units the bookmaker pays out per unit staked (European odds X stake = payout).

Examples:

Odds

Stake

payout

Winning

1.80

300 Euro

1.80 X 300 Euro = 540 Euro

300 Euro X (1.80 - 1) = 240 Euro

2.50

200 Euro

2.50 X 200 Euro = 500 Euro

200 Euro X (2.50 - 1) = 300 Euro


UK Odds (fractions)
Odds show how many units you win per unit staked (UK odds X stake =
winning).

Examples:

Odds

Stake

payout

Winning

4/5

300 Euro

(4/5+1) X 300 Euro = 540 Euro

300 Euro X 4/5 = 240 Euro

3/2

200 Euro

(3/2+1) X 200 Euro = 500 Euro

200 Euro X 3/2 = 300 Euro


US Odds
Odds divided into positive odds and negative odds:
Negative odds - used when stake is bigger then winnings and show the stake needed for a winning of 100 units.
Positive odds - used when stake is smaller then winnings and show the winnings for a 100 units bet.


Examples:

Odds

Stake

payout

Winning

-125 (N)

300 Euro

(1+100/125) X 300 Euro = 540 Euro

300 Euro X 100/125 = 240 Euro

150 (P)

200 Euro

(1+150/100) X 200 Euro = 500 Euro

200 Euro X 150/100 = 300 Euro

Notes
1. Some bookmakers support more than one of the standards.
2. When odds converted from UK standard, round-off adjustments may occur.
 Calculate Payout & Probability


The payout & probability calculation for each outcome is based on bookmaker's posted odds.The calculations are done for an event with three outcomes - H (home win), D (draw) or V (visitors win), but can be used for any outcomes in condition is that the outcomes cover all possible outcomes of the event.


Step 1 - Payout Calclulation

First we calculate the customer's payout. The payout shows how much the customer receives in winnings whenever he makes a bet of 1 Euro (all outcomes). If odds[H] is the odds for a home win, then the bookmakers price for a payout of 1 Euro in case of a victory for the home team is 1/odds[H]. For all three outcomes the bookmaker event price is:

Bookmaker event price = 1/odds[H] + 1/odds[D] + 1/odds[V]

If the bookmaker receive the bets in the right proportions, then the payout for the customers is:


Payout
=  (1 /  bookmaker event price ) X 100%


Examples (European):

Home

Draw

Visitor

Bookmaker event price

Payout

1.80

3.20

4.00

1/1.80 + 1/3.20 + 1/4.00 = 1.118

(1/1.118) X 100% = 89.4%

1.50

2.80

8.50

1/1.50 + 1/2.80 + 1/8.50 = 1.141

(1/1.141) X 100% = 87.6%


Step 2 - Probability Calclulation
In order to calculate odds probability, multiply the bookmaker's price for all outcomes by the payout:


Probability[H] = ( 1/odds[H] ) X Payout
Probability[D] = ( 1/odds[D] ) X Payout
Probability[V] = ( 1/odds[V] ) X Payout

Examples (continued):


Probability[H] = ( 1/1.80 ) X 89.4% = 49.7%
Probability[D] = ( 1/3.20) X 89.4% = 27.9%
Probability[V] = ( 1/4.00) X 89.4% = 22.4%

The calcluated probabilities are the bookmaker's event results estimated probabilities .  
 Highest Odds


Betting on highest odds will not improve your winning ratios, but using highest odds will improve your long term profit from betting by 1525%
 
 Value Bets


Value Betting is a mathematical way of calculating how good an odd is. Long term, events with a high value will be profitable.
In order to find bookmakers Value Bet we multiply the bookmakers odds with event percentage-probability:

Value = ( Odds X event percentage-probability (%) ) / 100

When value is higher then 1.00 you have a Value Bet. It means that, statistically, your winning will be higher then your stake, so long term you can only win. The only problem with this calculation is that in sport events, you can not precisely determine probabilities since too many factors involved, so we use the average probabilities of all bookmakers for each event.
Our Value Bets table helps you find the best Value Bets among the enormous amount of odds at the site, so you can profit betting the best Value Bets available.  
 Sure Bets


Sure Bet is a bet that guarantees winning with any outcome of the event. A Sure Bet is a result of the difference between odds of different bookmakers in a way that, in the right proportions, your stake is lower then your winnings for any outcome.


Example:

Home

Draw

Visitor

Total

Odds

2.50

3.33

4.00

-

Stake

1/2.50 = 0.40 Euro

1/3.33= 0.30 Euro

1/4.00= 0.25 Euro

0.40 + 0.30 + 0.25 = 0.95 Euro


You will need to stake 0.95 Euro to win 1 Euro. Or, said in another way, for each 1 Euro you bet, you will receive 1 / 0.95 = 1.05 Euro back for any event outcome.
You need to be aware of the following notes if you intend to play Sure bets:
1. Check tax or costs of payment and pay-off.
2. Make sure the bookmaker quotes do not get changed after you placed your bets.
3. Some bookmakers require that you bet on more than a single match to accept your bet.
 
 Back-Lay Arbitrage


Back-Lay Arbitrage is a bet that you will have a guaranteed winning with any outcome of the event. A Back-Lay Arbitrage is a result of the difference between odds of different bookmakers (back) and exchanges lay odds in a way that, in the correct proportions, your stake is lower than your winnings for any outcome. The Back-Lay Arbitrage occurs when a back odd is higher then the equivalent lay odd, so you can back the odd and lay it using lower ratio.


You need to be aware of the following notes if you intend to play Back-Lay Arbitrages:
1. Check tax or costs of payment and pay-off.
2. Make sure the bookmaker/exchange quotes do not shift after you placed your bets.
3. Some bookmakers require that you bet on more than a single match to accept your bet.
 
 Bonus Arbitrage


Bonus Arbitrage is a bet that you will have a guaranteed winning with any outcome of the event. A Bonus Arbitrage is a result of the bonuses added to your actual stake in a way that, in the correct proportions, your actual stake (without the bonuses) is lower than your fixed winnings for any outcome.


You need to be aware of the following notes if you intend to play Bonus Arbitrages:
1. Check tax or costs of payment and pay-off.
2. Make sure the bookmaker/exchange quotes do not shift after you placed your bets.
3. Some bookmakers require that you bet on more than a single match to accept your bet.
4. All bonuses are subject to bookmaker's terms and conditions, including rollover requirements.
5. Some bonuses may only be credited to your account after bet placed or event settled.
6. Make sure that listed offers did not expire.